Connecticut’s Towns Experiencing a Demographic Shift from 2015 to 2040, Connecticut State Data Center Reports

August 31, 2017 – Towns in Connecticut are projected to slowly gain population as a total, according to the 2015 to 2040 population projections for all 169 towns in the state of Connecticut, released today by the Connecticut State Data Center.

2015_2040_town_projected_growth

1970-2010 Population and 2015-2040 Projected Population for Top 10 Towns Projected to Experience Largest Percentage of Population Growth

The new projections show that multiple towns are approaching a demographic shift due to an aging population, a near net zero overall migration rate, and a relatively low, but stable, birth rate.  Windham, East Windsor, Avon, Oxford, Ellington, Sterling, Norwich, West Haven, Rocky Hill, and Manchester are expected to experience the largest percentage of increase in overall population projected from 2015 to 2040.

2015_2040_town_projected_decline

1970-2010 Population and 2015-2040 Projected Population for Top 10 Towns Projected to Experience Largest Percentage of Population Decline

The towns of Sherman, New Fairfield, Bridgewater, Sharon, Monroe, Cornwall, Salisbury, Old Saybrook, Washington, and Weston are projected to experience the largest percentage of decline in the overall population from 2015 to 2040.

The changing demographics by age cohort for towns in Connecticut provides a more complete picture of the overall trends within towns over time.  The Connecticut State Data Center has released an interactive data dashboard to accompany the release which enables users to view demographic changes town by town with data from 1970 to 2040.  When reviewing the age cohort data, long-term trends in demographics shifts within towns, and more broadly across the state when comparing multiple towns, indicate which towns are experiencing stable or declining births by examining the under 5 age cohort, as well as visually presenting the demographic shift between age cohorts as individuals age 55 to 64 age into the 65+ age cohort.

 

The comparison between are largest percentage of population gain (Windham) versus our largest percentage of population decline (Sherman) highlights the shifts in age cohorts within these towns.

1970_2040_age_cohort_change_Sherman_Windham

1970 to 2040 Comparison of Change by Age Cohort for Sherman and Windham, Connecticut

 

Connecticut’s eight most populous towns will see a growing or stable population based on the projections from 2015 to 2040, following an overall trend for several of these towns since 2000.

Overview, Connecticut will grow slowly in population from 2015 to 2040. The projected populations for each town can differ over time based on factors not included within the projections model, and thus these population projections are reviewed annually by the Connecticut State Data Center and compared to the most recent data to adjust projections if data reflects changes in the projected trend for a town. For more details on the data release and how to view and access data, visit the Connecticut State Data Center 2015 to 2040 Town Population Projections site.

Connecticut State Data Center Embargo Release of 2015-2040 Population Projections for the State of Connecticut Towns

August 15, 2017 – The Connecticut State Data Center will release the 2017 edition of the state of Connecticut Town Population Projections for 2015 to 2040 on August, 31, 2017.  This release will include population projections by five year age cohorts and sex for each of the 169 towns in the State of Connecticut.  This release only includes town population projection with other geographies for Connecticut to be released in upcoming releases.  Prior to the public release of the town population projections for 2015 to 2040, the Connecticut State Data Center will offer embargo access to the media and to Connecticut focused data organizations in advance of the public release.

When: Tuesday, August 29, 2017 at 10 a.m. EDT to Thursday August 31, 2017 at 12:01 a.m. EDT.

Where: Connecticut State Data Center embargo site.

Interview requests: Embargo subscribers may interview Connecticut State Data Center staff during the embargo period.  To request an interview, email ctsdc@uconn.edu.

Obtain media and Connecticut focused data organizations embargo access: Visit the Connecticut State Data Center’s embargo website for access.

Embargoed summary documents, press release templates, data visualizations, and raw data may not be released to the public by any means (including print, broadcast, Internet, podcast, social media, blogs, or in any other form) prior to public release.  The public release will be at 12:01 a.m. EDT, Thursday August 31, 2017.

For more details on the embargo and how to request embargo access, visit the Connecticut State Data Center Embargo site.

Connecticut’s Population is Expected to Grow Slowly, Connecticut State Data Center Reports

For Immediate Release: Monday July 31, 2017
(Revised September 19, 2017)

Connecticut’s Population is Expected to Grow Slowly, Connecticut State Data  Center Reports

 

July 31, 2017 –  The state of Connecticut is expected to add about 60,700 residents from 2015 to 2040, according to the 2015 to 20140 population projections for the state of Connecticut, released today by the Connecticut State Data Center.

 

The new projections, based on the age characteristics of the states population along with recent birth, death, and migration rates, indicate that the states resident population is expected to grow from about 3.59 million in 2015 to approximately 3.65 million in 2040, a 1.7% growth rate over the 25-year period.
projected_Connecticut_population_growth_2015_2040_table

Figure 1: 2015 to 2040 Population Projections for the State of Connecticut

The slow projected growth mirrors that of states in the region, with most states in New England predicting small gains in population, or even negative growth, in the foreseeable future.

 

From 2010 to 2030, Connecticut is projected to gain 1.7%, Maine is projected to lose 0.5%, Massachusetts is projected to gain 10.4%, New Hampshire is projected to gain 6.6%, New York is projected to gain 2.2%, Rhode Island is projected to gain 1.7%, and Vermont is projected to gain 7.1% in population, according to projections produced by each of the respective states.

regional_population_changes_for_New_York_and_New-England_2010_2030

Figure 2: Projected Population Change for New York and New England, 2010 – 2030*

 

A main factor driving low projected growth are regional trends in fertility rates, the number of births per 1,000 women of childbearing age. New England states fertility rates trailed those of all other states in 2015, according to the latest data from U.S. Health and Human Services. Connecticut’s fertility rate of 52.5 was the 5th lowest in the country, slightly greater than rates in Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Vermont, which ranked last.

 

As the baby boomer generation ages, a generational shift is projected to occur in Connecticut as the Millennials (individuals born 1981-2000) remain a nearly stable population in Connecticut while the population born after 2000 is projected to continue to rise from 637,000+ in 2015 to a projected 1.8 million by 2040.

projected_change_for_generations_born_after_1945_ct_projections_2015_2040

Figure 3: Projected Change for Generations Born after 1945

 

“Land of steady habits” summarizes the overall recent trends of birth, mortality, and migration rates, trends which are held constant in the projection models. Migration – both domestic and international – also contributes to changes in Connecticut’s projected population.  With recent years seeing Connecticut’s population change nearing a net zero, when compared to birth, mortality, and international migration, it is important to look at the entire picture of data to see that Connecticut continues to experience growth.

With a projected 1.7% growth rate projected from 2015 to 2040, this rate can be influenced by a number of factors ranging from changes in domestic and international policy related to migration, to changes in fertility rates.

 

Figure 3: Projected Change in Population for Generations Born After 1945

The population projections included in this release are based solely on demographic trends, and do not attempt to predict or account for future changes in economic, employment, or housing factors in the state.
For more details on the data release and how to view and access data, visit the Connecticut State Data Center 2015 to 2040 Population Projections site.

Note: This Press Release was updated on September 19, 2017 to correct an error in the data that was published on July 31, 2017.

Connecticut State Data Center Embargo Release of 2015-2040 Population Projections for the State of Connecticut

July 25, 2017 – The Connecticut State Data Center will release the 2017 edition of the state of Connecticut Population Projections for 2015 to 2040 on July, 31, 2017.  This release will include population projections by five year age cohorts and sex for the State of Connecticut.  This release only includes state population projection with other geographies for Connecticut to be released in upcoming releases.  Prior to the public release of the state population projections for 2015 to 2040, the Connecticut State Data Center will offer embargo access to the media and to Connecticut focused data organizations in advance of the public release.

When: Friday, July 28, 2017 at 10 a.m. EDT to Monday July 31, 2017 at 12:01 a.m. EDT.

Where: Connecticut State Data Center embargo site.

Interview requests: Embargo subscribers may interview Connecticut State Data Center staff during the embargo period.  To request an interview, email ctsdc@uconn.edu.

Obtain media and Connecticut focused data organizations embargo access: Visit the Connecticut State Data Center’s embargo website for access.

Embargoed summary documents, press release templates, data visualizations, and raw data may not be released to the public by any means (including print, broadcast, Internet, podcast, social media, blogs, or in any other form) prior to public release.  The public release will be at 12:01 a.m. EDT, Monday July 31, 2017.

For more details on the embargo and how to request embargo access, visit the Connecticut State Data Center Embargo site.

Census Tracts with median household income less than 60% of state average

The visualization below highlights Census Tracts with median household income less than sixty percent of statewide averages, according to American Community Survey data.

Data source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, table B19013

Housing Units Source of Heat in Connecticut

How does Connecticut heat up their homes during the cold seasons? There are numerous ways to provide heat for a home. This visualization shows the different types of heat sources and how many housing units use them for each Connecticut town. You can see trends in the data when looking at the maps. Towns with urban environments tend to use utility gas and kerosene as a source of heat. Rural and suburban towns tend to use liquefied petroleum gas or wood as heating sources. Surprising data I found is that some homes use solar energy for heat. There is not a lot of homes that use solar energy, but maybe the number will increase in the future as we adapt to more renewable energy. The data source is from the American Community Survey 5-year estimate from 2011 to 2015. This data visualization is for the 2015 year.

 

https://public.tableau.com/views/HeatingSourceMapsandFiguresFeb2/Story1?:embed=y&:display_count=yes

Demographics of Oglala Lakota County

The Keystone Pipeline is an oil pipeline running from the Canadian Tar Sands in Alberta to the Gulf Coast in Texas. The plan for the fourth phase of this project proposes to run a new section of this pipeline under the Missouri River, just upstream of the Oglala Lakota sacred land. The Lakota people rely on this river for their livelihood. In the wake of the Flint, Michigan crisis, the main concern of locals is possible contamination of the water. The implications would be catastrophic leading to the inability to use the river to fish, irrigate crop land or even have clean water to drink.

This map visualizes 2 sets of data obtained from the US Census Bureau on family income and minority populations. The 2 maps show striking similarities. Upon some calculations and research into the maps it was quite apparent that the Oglala Lakota County had the highest percent minority population of any county in the entire United States. Oglala Lakota County also has the 3rd lowest mean family income in the country. It is one of three counties in the United States completely encompassed by a Native American reservation. The Lakota tribe considers the Missouri River sacred since it has been the tribes main source of life since they inhabited the land nearly 1200 years ago.

-Cody J. Crane

UConn MAGIC 2017

2016 Connecticut Aerial Photography Now Available via CTECO

Our colleagues at the Center for Land Use Education and Research (CLEAR) have just announced the statewide, 2016, 3 inch aerial imagery is now available via the CT ECO Website! This imagery is available for use in a wide range of ways depending on the users need/application. Included below is an overview of the options available for viewing and downloading the 2016 Connecticut aerial photography:

  • as a dynamic image service and a cached image service
  • for download by tile (PLEASE use the download manager if you will be downloading more than a couple of tiles) and
  • in the Aerial Imagery Viewer for viewing

2016 Aerial Photo Sample

Stay tuned for more options as town mosaics for download an all lidar products including DEM tiles, elevation image services and LAS files are made available from CT ECO and CLEAR.

The project was managed by the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG), on behalf of the Connecticut regional councils of governments, and funded by the Connecticut Office of Policy and Management (OPM) with contributions from the Connecticut Department of Transportation (DOT) and the Connecticut Department of Emergency Services and Public Protection (DESPP).  The project management team includes municipal, regional, state and university representatives. 

 

 

 

 

Poverty and Educational Attainment by Gender in Connecticut

The following visualization explores poverty levels in Connecticut by township; as well as by educational attainment. The data is provided by the US Census Bureau through the American Community Survey 2015 5-year estimates (2011-2015). My goal in assessing this data was to observe trends of poverty in Connecticut, as it relates to education level, location, and gender. Through the visualization it can be observed that the highest pockets of poverty are found in Bridgeport, Hartford, New Haven and Waterbury. These cities have the largest populations in the state which also correlates to the largest numbers of poverty. There was a large discrepancy in poverty rates, in the category of gender. Females had a greater instance of poverty at 60% compared to males at 40%. In the category of education, individuals whose highest level of education was a high school diploma were found to have the highest occurrence of poverty. Contrary to popular belief, people who have some college/associates degree were in many cases, just as likely to be living in poverty as people who earned less than a high school degree.

The most effective way to utilize this dashboard is to view it for statewide trends or town data. If you are looking for information on a particular town in Connecticut, select that town in the table on the right. By selecting the town, the other charts and map will be updated to reflect information only for this town. If you would like to look at multiple towns at once you can select more than one by holding the control key (Windows) or command key (Mac) and selecting the additional town(s). It is important to note that by comparing multiple towns, the statistics will be a sum of all towns included.

Data Source:
https://factfinder.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/ACS/15_5YR/B17003/0400000US09.06000

Changes in economic indicators in Connecticut towns

Last week’s release of the 2011-2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau provides new demographic and socioeconomic data for all Connecticut towns, including estimates of  income, poverty, and workforce characteristics. One especially detailed table in this new dataset – made available by the American Community Survey since the program began – is DP03: Selected Economic Characteristics (see links appearing to the left of the table in American FactFinder to view data for previous years). Because the survey periods don’t overlap, the economic estimates published in the  2015 5-Year Estimates dataset can be compared with the 2010 5-Year Estimates data for evidence of change. The graphics below employ a calculation which determines whether town-level economic measures increased or decreased beyond the margin of error of the survey estimates, and illustrate these statistically significant changes between the 2006-10 and 2011-15 survey periods  for several economic indicators.

For help with locating U.S. Census Bureau data for Connecticut, including American Community Survey data, please contact the Connecticut State Data Center.